Senate

Robin Carnahan and Roy Blunt have been dueling over fundraising numbers for several quarters now with the last two rounds going to Blunt.  He’s capitalized on a strong Republican environment brought on by an activist Barack Obama administration which has struck fear into the hearts of conservatives across America. 

Every little thing Obama does is magic… for Blunt.  Whether it’s a rational policy on letting people with AIDS enter the country, or pushing through a stimulus package to pull the country back from the brink of a financial collapse, or rethinking the country’s ancient Cuba policy, or “re-setting” every relationship across the globe, or trying to curb carbon emission or accepting the Nobel Peace Prize, or attempting healthcare reform…. In other words everywhere in every way, the president has helped mobilize the Blunt donors by making them feel under siege.

Blunt should beat Carnahan again this quarter, but the truth is that it no longer matters.  They’ll both be well-funded, have plenty of TV and radio, and a fully-armed ground game.  The winner will be determined by the mood of one man, Mr. Unemployment.

Congressional

Ed Martin – Russ Carnahan

Martin had a blow-out number last quarter coming in at $200,000.  Given the structural difficulties of this quarter – holidays galore, end of year taxes etc – and that he probably piled all his low-hanging fruit into the first quarter, the number he needs to hit this quarter is $125,000. That would keep him legit, especially among national donors who are still sifting through the various Democratic districts to decide where to send their cash. 

Carnahan’s machine awoke from its slumber and figured since they’re going to get tagged with Nancy Pelosi’s baggage they might as well get some Jack for it.  That big fundraiser will catapult him ahead of Martin.  But is Martin continues on track and keeps his expenses in check, he’ll have enough fuel to go the distance and give Carnahan the sweats.

Tom Sowers – Jo Ann Emerson

Democrats love Sowers.  Never seen mass puppy-love? Come to St. Louis City and talk about this congressional candidate to the South.  His last quarter drew on his national contacts, and hit $200k.  He’s traveled the state this quarter in search of Missouri money and his expectations are the same as Martin (above) - $125,000.  That keeps his momentum going into the New Year. Less than that and doubts will creep into the hearts of even those with a crush on the young Vet.

Meanwhile Emerson needs to do as Carnahan (above) and show the muscle of incumbency.  A fat $200k quarter with expense cut in half (down to $50k) will reassure Republicans who have viewed this as a safe district.  It is, but Emerson should still prove it.